I am Chandler and I am super excited to be joining a group as wild and exciting as SmokeSports. Although I gamble (responsibly) on every sport, my favorite to bet is golf. Betting golf is very different from most sports, with the season being so long and every golfer being so good, any single golfer can shoot 4 low rounds in any given weekend. So, in golf it is key to find consistent players that will put you in a position on Sunday to cash a big ticket each week.
Will you cash an outright winner every week? Of course not. Golf gambling is a marathon, but lucky for you, here at SmokeSports we sprint marathons.
There are two PGA Tour events happening this week, the Puerto Rico Open as well as the World Golf Championship-Mexico. All the big hitters are in the WGC so that is what we will be focused on.
With the rest of the world being shut off, they have relocated the WGC from Mexico to Florida. Which kicks off the Florida stretch of tournaments a week early.
With the prize for 1st place being well over a million, you must start with the highest ranked golfers. They always seem to turn it up when there is a large check involved, shocker. With using that logic, my first targets for who would do well went right to DJ and Brooks. That logic was right for Brooks, but jeez my DJ idea could not have been more wrong.
I did not lock anything in for this tournament beforehand because in all honesty I did not know I was going to be writing articles about golf betting this week, but I let the Smoke group chat know what I was thinking after round 1 and that I liked Brooks at +800 and Cameron Smith +1400 to be in contention through the weekend… and guess who is at the top of the board… Cameron (T2) and Brooks (Solo 1st). A reporter asked Brooks if he was worried about coming into the tournament never even playing the course and only playing the front 9 for warm up... and in classic Brooks fashion he comes out and leads the field heading into the weekend without any knowledge outside of the yardage book.
If you are a regular watcher of the PGA Tour, you will know that Cameron Smith (T2) is one of the hottest golfers in the world right now and sets up well to compete in the Florida tournaments. Australian golfers LOVE Bermuda grass, and Cam Smith is no exception. Tournament quality courses in Florida normally use Bermuda grass, so look for Cam Smith to be near the top of the leaderboard over the next few weeks.
Tony Finau (T5) is another player to watch and honestly root for this week because he is probably the most due for a win on the entire tour. After coming so close to finally getting the monkey off his back last week in a playoff loss to Max Homa, Tony is sitting well headed into the weekend to potentially finish off the field this week for that win he has been so desperately chasing.
The lowest score on Friday came from Bryson Dechambeau (T20) at -8 on the day. When Bryson’s drives are going straight the entire field needs to watch out but getting that consistency over 4 days is what is key. After a 77 first round Bryson’s RD2 64 puts him right back in this tournament and has to put in a scare in the rest of the field.
Unlike last week when it was Sam Burns vs the field headed into the weekend, the leaderboard is PACKED with talent and more than 15 golfers within 7 shots of the lead, whereas last week Sam Burns was 5 shots up on second place. The finish last week was electric, and we can only hope that this week finishes the same way.
The value on Brooks headed into this weekend will be the highest we will see from him for a long time, and I didn’t take advantage of it, which is pissing me off now, but I decided to get in on the fun very late and played Brooks to win +150, Morikawa +500, and Cameron Smith +700. Terrible value for Brooks, but when he is on his game… there is no stopping him. The other two have decent value still, being only one shot back with 2 full rounds to play. Also just played Brooks to win The Masters +1200, because if he is playing like this over the next month, he will be +800 at best.
Chandler’s Bets: Round 2 Matchups 2-0
Brooks> DJ +105 $$$
Cam Smith>Kevin Na -145 $$$
Round 3 Matchups: DJ> Harris English -155
Victor Hovland> Gary Woodland -165
Patrick Reed> Matt Fitzpatrick -125