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WEEK 14 MEGA BREAKDOWN

I cannot believe it is week 14 in the NFL already! The playoff picture is starting to shape up. Games are becoming a little more important. We’re starting to figure out who the real teams are and who is a fraud. It is a beautiful time to be an NFL fan and we have some solid match ups this week.


Ill do a quick run through last week. I went 4-2 on the plays I gave out on the blog. Very solid week! I cashed Dolphins -2.5, Chargers +3, Broncos/KC under 48 and a teaser of Cardinals/Colts. My two losses were the Eagles/Jets under and the Ravens -3.5. The under never even had a chance in that one. But the Ravens loss is the one that bothers me. WTF is up with that team? I think the Dolphins may have exposed and broken them on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back. But enough living in the past, its time to break down this new slate and find some winners.


Thursday Night Football

Steelers @ Vikings (-3.5) – O/U 43.5

The first game on the card this weekend is a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and the Vikings. The Steelers are coming off an impressive win against the division rival Ravens. The Vikings are the exact opposite and are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Lions. It looks like the Vikings will be without Thielen on offense and potentially Dalvin Cook as well. The Vikings are not a team that I want to be backing. This year we have seen them blow a lead to any and every team imaginable. A loss here could result in Mike Zimmer being fired and rightfully so in my opinion. I think the Steelers should find massive success running the football against this terrible Vikings run defense. It seems like Pittsburgh has some momentum and they are going all out for Big Bens last year. I will be looking to back the Steelers in some way shape or form in this game. I may actually wait to bet the game live and hope the Vikings score first so I can watch them blow yet another lead.

LEAN: Steelers +3.5 (Look to bet them live)

Sunday 1:00


Raiders @ Chiefs (-10) – O/U 48

This game is an AFC West showdown. The Raiders are such an odd team its hard to know what to expect from them. They are coming off a loss last week to Washington. The Chiefs have riffled off five straight wins and are now one of the favorites to win the AFC after a shaky start. I think one thing that’s not being talked about enough is KCs defense. They have allowed just 11.2 point per game in their last 5 games which include wins over the high-powered Packers and Cowboys. During this stretch of games, the under is 4-1 for the Chiefs. The Raiders are 30th in redzone efficiency and 30th in 3rd down conversions. It’s no secret if you don’t do those things well, you aren’t going to be scoring many points. The Raiders have scored 15 or less in 4 of their last 5. I think the Thanksgiving game was a bit of an anomaly. So, my angle on this game is the Under 48. I also have a little sweetheart teaser that involves this game, but I’ll get to that at the end.

LEAN: Under 48 (KC sweetheart teaser as well)

Saints (-5.5) @ Jets – O/U 43.5

Blah! This one is a stinker. The Saints have lost 5 straight games and it seems the wheels have sort of fallen of for them. While the Jets haven’t been much better losing 4 of their last 5. I’ll be honest I have no interest in watching or betting this game. I’m not even going to break it down any further, save your time for the games that matter.


Jags @ Titans (-9) – O/U 44

Another pretty gross game on our hands here. The Jags have lost 4 straight games including the beat down the Rams put on them last week. The Titans are coming off a bye but have dropped their last two games previous. I’m not sure why more people are not talking about how poor Trevor Lawrence has been. In the month of November, he had 5 starts and threw 1 TD and 1 INT total in those 5 games. There’s a lot of other QBs around the league that would be crucified for those kind of numbers. This seems like a nice bounce back spot for the Titans. They are getting Julio back this week, which isn’t the biggest news, but it certainly helps their depleted wide receive core. The Titans have continued to find success running the ball, even after the Henry injury. I am pretty certain the Titans win this game, but I am not sure they cover the 9. No bet in this game, just a lean.

LEAN: Titans -9


Ravens @ Browns (-2) – O/U 42

This is one of my favorite matchups of the weekend. I just love watching AFC North football and this game is especially big for playoff implications. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers. While the Browns are coming off a bye and oddly enough their last game was a loss to the Ravens. So, we get a quick rematch of that week 12 contest. I think the rest off the bye will be huge for the Browns. It gave them a week to get healthy and they definitely needed that. Hopefully we see a healthier Baker in this one because I think this is a great spot for him to find success. The Ravens are 30th in passing yards allowed and 30th in yards allowed per play. Add in the fact that Marlon Humphry is now out for them and the Browns really could have a field day through the air. That Ravens secondary unit is one of the most banged up units in football. On the other side of the ball, I think the Browns should dominate up front. Its no secret that the Ravens OLine is just not very good (32nd in the NFL in sacks allowed). Myles Garrett should have himself a nice little day. This is another one where my bet has been submitted. I opted for the ML over laying the two points to save myself from a one-point win not covering.

PLAY: Browns ML -130

Falcons @ Panthers (-3) – O/U 42.5

This matchup doesn’t feature the sexiest two teams, but it is a divisional game and one that I have made a play in. The Falcons are coming off a loss to the Bucs and the Panthers are coming off a bye but have lost their previous two. The Panthers also decided to fire their OC Joe Brady during their bye week. This one was a bit of a headscratcher for me as Brady has been regarded as a good OC. I heard it was because Matt Rhule wanted to run the ball more. If that’s true, that kinda nuts. But let’s be honest here, should the Panthers be a favorite to anyone in the NFL? They are already 0-4 ATS as favorites this year and a team that I think is trending in the wrong direction. I think this is the last time we see Carolina as a favorite all year and I am taking advantage of that. Give me Matt Ryan and the Falcons who I think are the better football team. Who is even playing QB for Carolina? Cam? If so, that makes me more excited to fade them. Worth pointing out, the last 3 Panthers vs Falcons games have gone under and the last 3 Falcons games in general have went under. Don’t think that’s a bad look either.

PLAY: Falcons +3 (Lean under 42.5)

Cowboys (-4) @ Washington – O/U 48

We head to the NFC East for this matchup between the Cowboys and The Football Team. The Cowboys are coming off a win over the Saints. Washington is currently on a 4-game win streak in which we have seen them cover all 4 games. It’s been an impressive little run for Riverboat Ron’s boys. Dallas does have extra rest in this one coming off a TNF game last week. I think we need to keep an eye on the weather in this one. Washington’s field is notoriously bad. If we get some rain/snow, there that field will be torn to shreds and should slow down offenses. I obviously think Dallas is the more talented team and they are getting healthier. There is just something about this game that feels like a trap to me. I feel like Washington’s run must be coming to an end sometime soon. For whatever reason, I just don’t feel comfortable backing the Cowboys in this one. Just a lean for me.

LEAN: Cowboys -4


Seattle (-7.5) @ Texans – O/U 41.5

What a random game this is. The Seahawks finally got off the schneid of three straight losses and caught a nice W against the Niners last week. Houston is coming off a shut-out loss against the colts. I think the Texans could potentially be without Tyrod for this one, meaning Davis Mills would be in. Mills obviously isn’t great, but Tyrod hasn’t exactly been playing the best football either. Both of these offenses are rather terrible. I think the under is a great look. But this Texans offense is especially bad. They are dead last in 1st downs, rushing and points and 31st in passing. Jesus Christ is that bad. I think this is a perfect teaser spot. Teasers are extra valuable in games with low totals because points are coming at a premium. So, I am teasing the Seahawks down. I actually paired this with another game in a similar situation, but a college game. Army v Navy! The total on that game is 36 so points are seriously a premium. Give me Army teased down to pair with the Seahawks in this gritty teaser.

PLAY: Seahawks teased down to -1.5 (Paired with Army teaser. Also lean under in this one big time.)


Sunday 4:00


49ers (-1) @ Bengals – O/U 48.5

Now here is a great game! A little cross conference matchup between the Niners and the Bengals. The Niners are coming off an ugly loss against Seattle. The Bengals are coming off an impressive win against the Chargers. It is definitely worth pointing out the travel spot in this one. This will be the Niners second road game in a row, and most importantly a cross country road trip for them. Additionally, it sounds like they are going to be without Deebo Samuel for this one again. Their offense didn’t look the same without Deebo last week. The Bengals QB Joe Burrow is nursing a finger injury on his throwing hand. He played through the injury last week and was still able to move the ball, so I am not overly worried about it. The 49ers have a rather poor secondary and do not rush the passer well at all. I think the Bengals offense should find some success through the air. I also think the Bengals will be able to manage the 49ers run game. They have a stout run D that should be up for the task. I already have my bet submitted in this one.

PLAY: Bengals +1

Lions @ Broncos (-9) – O/U 42

The Lions are coming off their first win of the season! I am sure it was an emotional one and the team felt like they got the monkey off their back. The Broncos are coming off a loss to KC. One thing that stood out to me when handicapping this game is the Lions are actually great ATS this year. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 which is rather surprising. But I have no interest in backing this Lions team this week. There is news going around that the Flu is getting spread throughout the Lions locker room. QB Jared Goff was so sick that he could not practice yesterday. That is worth monitoring. The angle I think is playable in this game is the under. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 Lions games and 6-0 in the last 6 Broncos games. It’s not surprising considering these two teams lack of offense. This game is being played outdoors in Denver as well, which should help the case for the under. I haven’t played this one yet, but I do have my eyes on it.

LEAN: Under 42


Giants @ Chargers (-10.5) – O/U 43

In this one we have the Giants coming off a loss to the Dolphins and the Chargers coming off an impressive win against the Bengals. Right off the bat lets talk injuries. Who in the hell is playing QB for the Giants? It seems Daniel Jones is definitely out. Mike Glennon suffered a concussion and is likely out as well. So, does that mean Jake Fromm is the starting QB for the Giants? God damn that might be bad for them. On top of that it seems like their whole WR room is out hurt as well. On the other side, the Chargers did just lose both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen due to Covid. This is obviously a huge blow to their offense, but one I think they can overcome. The Chargers are the far more talented team in this one and if you’re telling me we get to bet against Jake Fromm in the NFL I'll take that all day. Sometimes you can’t be scared to lay a big number.

PLAY: Chargers -10.5 (Chargers also involved in my sweetheart teaser)


Bills @ Bucs (-3.5) – O/U 52.5

What an excellent matchup this one is. We get the Bills coming off the loss to the Patriots that many including myself are calling extremely embarrassing. The Bucs are coming off a bye and are winners of 3 straight. Worth point out that while the Bucs have extra rest, the Bills have a rest disadvantage coming off MNF. However, I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world for the Bills because they are looking to bounce back in a major way. They know they need wins down the stretch here to keep their divisional hopes alive and I think we should see the offense respond. The Bucs secondary isn’t great, so Allen should have some success moving the ball through the air. I also think the Bucs should move the ball rather successfully. The Tre White injury didn’t impact last weeks game for the Bills, but I am sure we will see the impact in this one. This game screams points to me! The Bills are 8th in the NFL in points and the Bucs are 1st. Sign me up for a points-fest please! I have placed this bet.

PLAY: Over 52.5 (I do lean Bills +3.5 in a bounce back)

Sunday Night Football

Bears @ Packers (-12) – O/U 43

I cannot believe this game was not flexed out of SNF. Every year it feels like we have this same game late in the year on prime time and it sucks. The Bears are coming off a loss to the Cardinals and have lost 4 of their last 5. The Packers are coming off a bye but defeated the Rams their last time out. The Packers have won and covered all 5 of the last meetings between these two teams. Aaron said it himself “I own you!” This Packers team is one I truly love and am very invested in. I have conference and Super Bowl tickets on the Packers and feel great about them. They have been doing well and continue to get key players back from injury. Next on the docket for them is star corner Jaire Alexander who appears to be coming back from injury really soon. This Packers team is great and should make a deep run. I am not laying the 12 in this one. That’s just so many points for a divisional game. But this one is Packers or nothing for me. They are the final team of my sweetheart teaser.

LEAN: Packers -12 (Packers are in sweetheart teaser)

Monday Night Football

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5) – O/U 51.5

I am looking forward to this game on Monday. This one will be massive in determining who wins the NFC West. This game deserves its own blog and breakdown. So, that will be coming on Monday.



That’s that for week 14. Some really nice matchups and a few that I am passing on all together. I do like the betting card that I have put together. I will detail it in full below. As always follow along on Twitter for any additional plays.


Official Card:

Browns ML -130

Falcons +3

Chargers -10.5

Bills/Bucs Over 52.5

Bengals +1

Teaser: Seahawks -1.5/Army -1.5 (Little bonus college play there)

Sweetheart teaser: KC +1, LAC -1, GB -2 (This is so chalky. But which of these teams are losing? NONE)


Peace and Love!

Bob


Twitter: @Bminus3

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