Waste Management Phoenix Open - LOCKS

What’s up people! I am back to breakdown another golf event. But as always, lets get into some housekeeping from last week at Pebble Beach. Tom Hoge was the winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -19. This was his first win on tour and well deserved after this run of great form. I will admit I am sad I wasn’t on him. I feel like I’ve backed him a few times this last month, but nonetheless good for Hoge. On the other hand, fuck Seamus Power. This guy looked like he was going to run away with the tournament after his second round. I mean after the first hole in his third round he got it to -17 but went on to shoot three over for the day Saturday then even Par on Sunday. Very disappointing from Power. I also live bet Spieth Sunday morning for a good sweat. On about hole 15 on Sunday I thought he had the tourney in the bag. But nope!! I still ended up going 3-2 in my fully tournament H2H matchups for a profit. I also hit one of my three top 20s. No outright winner, so it was essentially a breakeven week for me. But let’s now move on to this week’s tournament, The Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Course: Stadium Course @ TPC Scottsdale

Par: 71 – 3 pars 5s, 11 par 4s, 4 par 3s

Length: 7,266 yards

Greens: Bermudagrass/Poa – Faster greens

Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft. (Large)

Field Size: 132 players – Top 65 players make the cut after 36 holes

Purse: $8.2 Million – Winner $1.5 Million

Previous Winners – Odds Included

2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) – 50/1

2020: Webb Simpson (-17) – 14/1

2019: Rickie Fowler (-17) – 22/1

2018: Gary Woodland (-18) – 50/1

2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) – 11/1

2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14) – 28/1

2015: Brooks Koepka (-15) – 40/1

I am absolutely pumped for the WMPO! It is my official start to the “real” golf year. No more Pro-AMs. No more course rotations. We are playing a real golf tournament! Even better, this tournament is the perfect lead into Super Bowl Sunday. There is nothing better than starting your SB Sunday with this tournament. I vividly remember cashing Brooks here last year and I was already up big before the Super Bowl even started. This golf tournament is also the biggest party of the year. We will see about 600k people show up to spectate throughout the week. Highlighted by the par 3 on number 16 which has a full stadium on it that holds over 20k people. The fans will be hammered and loudly cheering all week. The energy is always amazing and that’s what makes this such a fun tournament to watch. It also makes it an amazing tournament to bet. We don’t have to worry about which course the guys are playing that day or if there’s going to be shots gained data from the rounds. It will all be there at our full disposal and we need to use it to make picks.

We have an awesome field for this week’s tournament! 26 of the top 50 players in the world will be playing. Including the likes of John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and many more. This is such a fun tournament because of the heroic Sunday finish we generally see. Since 2014 only one winner here has had the lead coming into the final round. That was Rickie Fowler back in 2019. We saw Brooks win last year after coming into Sunday 5 back of the lead. So really anything can happen here, and I can’t wait to witness it.

TPC Scottsdale is a fun track to watch these guys compete on. It is a desert style course. It’s not particularly short, but it is getable. All three par 5s can be reached in 2, so there is certainly some Eagles to be had. There is also a drivable par 4 on the back 9 on #17. It is a high risk-high reward type of set up. There is water in play on 6 of the holes, so players must be cautious of that. Being longer off the tee is definitely an advantage, but it is not crucial as Webb proved last year. This will be played at about 1500 feet above sea level, so the ball will travel further than it has in some recent tournaments. The most important aspect, as it normally is, will be strokes gained on approach. Ball striking will always reign supreme in golf and that is no different this week. Putting here generally isn’t much of an issue for these guys. The greens here are a bit quicker, but the players are very familiar with them. No need to go looking for a putting ace this week.

Some background on the outrights before I give them out. I had some very difficult decisions to make this week with this being such a great field. I really wanted to include Justin Thomas but at the price of 12/1, it just makes it too hard to fill out the rest of the card. So, I have to leave JT off this week unfortunately. If you wanted to just load up on JT and that’s it for outrights, I wouldn’t blame you one bit. I considered it.


Hideki Matsuyama +1800

It’s not hard to figure out why I love Deki here this week. The guy has already won this tournament twice in back-to-back years. He also has 2 other top 4s in this event. He won back at the Sony in January and at the Zozo in October. Matsuyama is truly playing some incredible golf at the moment. He is finally in the OWGR top 10 and I expect him to stick there for some time. His ball striking skills are elite and I am excited to be backing Hideki Matsuyama this week.

Viktor Hovland +1800

Viktor has been playing some incredible golf in his own right. As a matter of fact, he has won 3 of the last 5 tournaments that he has played in. This includes the Dubai event he won two weeks ago. Viktor is now the 3rd rated golfer in the world according to the OWGR and he turned pro less than 3 years ago. Viktor is a ball striking machine and this should set up well for him. He has only played this event once, where he missed the cut in 2020 but I expect that to be an outlier for Hovland moving forward.

Scottie Scheffler +2800

Is it finally time for Scottie to break through and get that first PGA tour victory? I think it certainly could be. Scheffler is a talented player who just hasn’t been able to finish it off yet. He has competed in very talented fields in the past and shined, so we know he has the skills. I think his length off the tee coupled with his approach game is a receipt for success here. He did finish in 7th last year, so there is at least some decent course history. I’d love nothing more than a Scottie W to lead me into the Super Bowl.

Sam Burns +3300

The last time we saw Sam Burns out was an uncharacteristically bad performance at the Farmers. However, I think Burns is still a great player that is more than capable of winning here. He gets some solid distance off the tee and is generally great on approach. Burns is a top 15 player in the world, and I like his value down here.

Russell Henley +4100

Henley seems to be a popular pick this week from what I have been reading and for good reason. He finished 2nd at Sony a few weeks back. His approach numbers have been extremely good, and he has gained strokes on approach in every tournament other than one that he has played in this year. All 3 of Henley’s wins in his career have come on similar green complexes. I like Henley as a value play this week.

Top 5/10/20:

Justin Thomas Top 10 +120

I couldn’t fit Thomas in my outright card, but he had to be backed in some way. Ill take some plus money for a top 10. He finished 3rd here in both 2019 and 2020. The finished T5 at both the Sentry and the Hero World Challenge. Thomas is a top player in the game and he’s playing at a course he’s had success on. Sign me up.

Bubba Watson Top 20 +140

I don’t think Bubba is going to win, that’s why he’s not on my outright card. I am fairly confident he will do well here though. I mean this is the course has had the most success at without winning. He has 4 top 5s including two runners up. Just need Bubba to keep it in the top 20 this week.

Luke List Top 20 +210

I like what I have seen from List this year. His last start at out, he won at the Farmers. He has gained strokes on approach in every tournament he has played in this year. Im looking for List to hit greens often and keep it in the top 20.

Full Tournament Head-to-Head:

JT > Cantlay -105

This is just another way of me getting some action on JT. I love the matchup because Cantlay has never even played this event. Both guys are class players but give me the guy with some experience here.

Burns > Berger +115

I obviously like Burns here as I have pointed out. But I am equally as excited to fade Berger. He pulled out of last weeks event with a back injury and the last time we saw him playing he was holding his back after every shot. Give me the healthy Burns in this matchup.

Bubba > Oosthuizen +105

I’ve spoking about Bubba’s success here, but this is too a fade on Oosti. The guy hasn’t played a professional round of golf since October 2021. Give me Bubba who loves this place over a guy who hasn’t been playing.

Henley > Power -120

Now I admit this might be a bit of a spite pick. Power melted last week, and it pissed me off, so I am fading him. However, I am doing it with a guy I really like this week in Henley, so it’s a bet I am willing to make.

Homa > Horschel -110

I am always looking to fade Billy Ho where possible. I like Homa this week, he seems to do well at these events out on the west coast. Horschel has poor on approach in recent events and I think that causes him to struggle this week.

Knox > Harmen -100

Knox has had relative success at this event in the past. He makes his bread and butter on approach shots and generally gives it all back putting. Putting shouldn’t be too tough this week. I was considering a top 20 on Knox but I ended up playing him in a matchup instead.

First Round Leader:

We finally have a tournament all on one course, so of course I have some first-round leaders. The best sweat in golf betting!

Burns +4000

Henley +4500

Varner +5000

Conners +5000

Gooch +5500

Large card this week that I am very excited about. Thanks for reading along and let’s cash some bets together! It would be beautiful going into the Super Bowl already winning a bunch of money. As always give a listen to Smokin’ Greens podcast that will drop tonight and follow along on twitter!

Twitter: @Bminus3 @Smokin_Greens

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