The UFC is back after a week long break as Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum square off in tonight's main event.
This is a pretty stacked 12-fight card with a battle between two elder workhorses, in Mark O. Madsen and Clay Guida, in the co-main event. Some fight-of-the-night candidates are Brandon Royval vs. Alexandre Pantoja, Austin Lingo vs. Luis Saldana and Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Roosevelt Roberts. Also on the card: Chase Sherman, Brian Kelleher and Vinc Pichel.
I have three best bets tonight and two honorable mentions. The first thing I'll say is tonight is the night to lay the juice if you're playing favorites. As of this morning, no favorite on the card is higher than -190. With that being said, this raises the value of our prop plays. Just know if I have a prop play on someone, I probably laid the juice tonight, aside from Chase Sherman.
If you want my full card plays DM me on twitter @_CobyW.
1. Kelleher by Finish +110
I got this line yesterday and I'm sure it won't be the same now, but its close to even money. Whatever it is, its worth it. In Brian Kelleher's 22 career wins he has 18 finishes. In 11 UFC appearances, the judges have only been involved three times. He also has only been to back-to-back decisions once in his career, he lost by unanimous decision to Ricky Simon in his last bout back in February. His opponent, Domingo Pilarte, is a solid prospect however, he's technically 0-2 in his UFC career. In his last bout he got slept with a bomb of an overhand by Journey Newsome. Fortunately for Pilarte, that fight goes down in the history books as a no contest due to Newsome failing a marijuana drug test. Newsome and Kelleher have a similar build and similar power, but Kelleher's BJJ is a superior to Newsome's. This is Kelleher's fight to lose. The 12-fight UFC vet steps in with a clear advantage in most aspects of this one. I'd advise you to lay the juice on him at -170, if you don't want to that's fine he should get a finish tonight.
2. Madsen by Decision +125
Its safe to say Clay Guida ages well and has an unbelievable gas tank. With that being said, Mark O. Madsen is a monster. The Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling is a pure pressure grappler. Madsen can stand and bang as well however, his wrestling is top 10 in the UFC. If there is someone who knows how to grapple and stop takedown Guida is up there. He might stop the first one or two, then the relentlessness of Madsen should takeover. It is a task for anyone to knockout Clay Guida and I have a feeling he will be able to defend the submission attempts as well therefore, I like Madsen by decision here. Madsen has won 40% of his fight by decision, but has yet to face someone with the relentless forward pressure and durability of Guida. Our main enemy in this fight will