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UFC on ESPN 20 Chiesa vs. Magny: Coby's Best Bets

The UFC brings us its second card in just four days and the eighth card on Fight Island on Wednesday morning. This card is headlined by a pair of welterweights on three fight win streaks in, Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny.


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This card starts at 9 in the morning. There’s nothing like watching people locked in a cage fighting for their lives, while guzzling down your morning coffee.


Some fun fights on the card include, Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez, Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Markus Perez and Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade. Also on the card, Tyson Nam, Matt Schnell, Francisco Figueiredo, Ricky Simon and Umar Nurmagomedov.


With a packed 14 fight card this is a tough one to predict. We do have three favorites over that -500 number and two more over -300. However, this card is full of close fights other than those.


For my props and full card plays check out my twitter @thiskid_coby5. For daily content and LOCKS follow @SmokeSportss.


1. Lazzez/Alves u2.5 -125


Mounir Lazzez comes in on short notice as a -260 favorite. The 10-1 “Sniper” is a KO machine, finishing 8 of his 10 by KO. Lazzez by KO is +125 and will be on my prop play list. Alves, 13-4, is an 11 fight UFC veteran. In his 17 career bouts, 10 of them have went under the 2.5 number. I think Alves will struggle with Lazzez’s crafty standup and kickboxing game. Although younger, Alves has a significantly less durable chin as well. With this being said Alves is still dangerous and probably has the grappling advantage. Overall, that 2.5 number is a safer play than Lazzez by KO, but count me in for both.


2. Villanueva/Moreira u1.5 -130


This is one of those battles between two guys who could be fighting for their job, more so for Moreira. Moreira, 9-4, has had just two fights go over 1.5 rounds and in fact has never been to a decision in his entire pro career. Villaneuva has 28 pro fights, 17-11, just 8 have went over 1.5. Villaneuva has been to decision just four times. Moreira is predominantly a grappler and submission specialist finishing 8 of his 9 wins by submission, yet 3 of his 4 losses are by KO, including two of his last three. Villaneuva isn’t a very decorated grappler and has all 14 of his finishes by KO, but he has been finished 10 times, 5 by sub and 5 by KO. I like Villanueva -135 and by KO +115, but there’s a reason it’s not a favorite play.



Honorable Mentions: Mudajeri by KO -160, Murphy by Finish EVEN, Nam -130.

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