UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Vettori: Coby's Plays

The UFC returns to our TV’s tonight for the organizations third to last show of the calendar year. Middleweights, Jack Hermansson and Marvin Vettori, headline a card full of sizeable favorites.

This card consists of many finishers and it’s going to show tonight. Some intriguing bouts on the card are Jamahal Hill vs Ovince St. Preux, Gabe Benitez vs Justin Jaynes and Movsar Evolev vs Nate Landwehr. Some other awesome fighters on the card are Roman Dolidze, Jimmy Flick and Gian Villante.

As far as the gambling side goes this cards odds favor the dogs heavily, strictly because I believe these fights are closer than anticipated. Especially fights like OSP vs Hill and Santos vs De la Rosa, due to the fact that these juicy favorites haven’t faced competition at the level the underdog.

Check out my twitter @thikid_coby5 for my full card, prop and total plays. Follow @SmokeSportss on twitter for more.

1. Roman Dolidze ITD -135

The 7-0 Dolidze has won all his fights by finish, 4 by KO 3 by submission. My favorite play in this fight, aside from Dolidze ML, is U2.5 which is in the same area as the money line at -200. If you’re willing to lay the juice more power to you, here I just see Dolidze do what he does best and that’s finish fights. His opponent John Allan is 14-5 with 4 losses coming by submission. A fun money prop would be Dolidze by submission +325.

2. Vettori/Hermansson U3.5 -140

This is such a close fight, but I see this going one of two ways. Marvin Vettori plays his game, grapples safely and lands heavy strikes or just one that puts Hermansson out or Hermansson dominates the grappling game, tires Vettori early and chokes him out. Fun fact, Hermansson has been involved in two five round fights both which exceeded the 3.5 round mark, however he has only been to decision five times in his 26 fight career. Vettori has never fought five rounds and took this fight on very short notice. Vettori has 11 finishes in 20 fights and has never been finished himself. If you don’t feel safe with the 3.5, U4.5 is -175 which is a solid price. Fun money plays: Vettori by KO +250 and Hermansson by Sub +280

Honorable Mention: Jaynes/Benitez U2.5 -160

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