UFC 269 Oliveira vs. Poirier: Coby's Best Bets

The UFC hosts its second-to-last event of the year tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

In the main event two legends fight for UFC lightweight gold, as Charles Oliveira defends his strap for the first time against Dustin Poirier. Co-healding the card is, the greatest women's mixed martial artist to ever live, Amanda Nunes, who defends her UFC women's bantamweight title against #3 ranked contender, Julianna Pena.

Some other fight-of-the-night candidates include Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio, Cody Garbrandt vs. Kai Kara-France and Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige. Also on the card, fan favorite, "Suga" Sean O'Malley, former UFC bantamweight champ, Dominick Cruz, and the UFC's shoey king, Tai Tuivasa.

To get my full card plays, DM me on Twitter @_CobyW.

  1. Dustin Poirier -135

Poirier opened the week around -170, so getting him at this price on fight day could be a gift. To me, this is Dustin's fight to lose. Poirier has all the skills to win and is one of the most mentally tough people on the planet. He's done everything in his career other than capture undisputed UFC lightweight gold. I believe his boxing will be his key to success as he's taken down many former UFC champs with that art. Since 2017, Poirier has gone 8-1 with one no-contest and Oliveira has gone 10-1. However, I'd give Poirier the upper hand in strength of schedule by a considerable amount. I just don't see this being a spot in which Poirier doesn't come through; his grappling defense is different, he's more durable and he has better cardio. This is a fight I don't anticipate to go five rounds either so play something on Poirier by KO at +120 as well. Tonight will be the night the Diamond adds the one thing missing from his hall-of-fame caliber UFC career.

2. Cody Garbrandt -135

This might be a play we sweat a little more considering it's Cody's flyweight debut, his recent history at bantamweight and the toughness of Kara-France. Taking all those things into consideration, I still think this is a great spot to get Garbrandt at. The experience he has out matches his opponents by a mile, his hand speed is a work of art and he should be able to take Kara-France to the mat if need be. It will be interesting to see the weight cuts effect on Cody however, he looked completely fine on the scale yesterday and emphasized that he's been preparing for the weight cut to 125lbs nearly all year. A win here could put Cody back in title contention however, this time at flyweight. If Cody stays focused and uses his complete skill set, we should cruise to victory here.

3. Miranda Maverick -135

In a battle of two young, women's flyweight prospects, it should be a competitive one. I'm siding with Maverick here because she'll have an experience advantage and she's a better wrestler. This is Blanchfield's toughest test yet and I think where Maverick is now is where Blanchfield will be in a year or so. Maverick seeks redemption for a fight, many say she got robbed in, against Maycee Barber in July. Overall, I see Maverick getting her hand raised in a fight we could absolutely see again down the road.

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