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TNF LOCK OF THE CENTURY

We finally get a great Thursday Night Football match up with the Los Angeles Rams traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. This is an NFC West show down! The Rams come into this game 3-1 after a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. While the Seahawks enter 2-2 coming off a victory over the San Francisco 49ers. It is interesting that both teams are playing back to back NFC West divisional games. In what many would consider the best division in football, this game should be important for how it shakes out.


Current Odds:

Rams -2.5 -115

Total: 54.5 -110


My Analysis:


I absolutely love the Los Angeles Rams in this football game for several reasons. For starters, I believe the Rams are just the far more talented and better coached football team. I am not a Pete Carroll fan and think he is one of the more overrated coaches in the league. Additionally, I just love this spot were getting. We are getting the Rams coming off a loss looking to bounce back and the Hawks coming off a big win.


Schematically this game seems like a massive mismatch. Its no secret McVay and the Rams love to air it out. They currently have the 4th ranked passing offense in the NFL. While the Seahawks rank 28th in pass defense. Not only that, but Seattle also ranks dead last in the NFL against the run. The Rams aren’t exactly a high-powered running team, but I think McVay will establish the run early, which will open the pass even more. I don’t think the Seahawks have the personal to slow this explosive Rams offense down.


Trends:

1. Rams are 8-2 ATS off a road loss covering by an average margin of 10.3 points.

2. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games against NFC west teams.

3. Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 against NFC west teams.

4. Road favorites are 14-9 SU this year.


Line movement:

This line opened with the Rams being a small dog at +1. The line has crossed through 0 and the Rams are now favorites. I am seeing at some spots the Rams are even up to -3, which is a significant football number. Its always nice to be on the side of the sharps that are betting significant money to move this line.


My Pick:


If you read my MNF blog, which I gave the shit pick of the Raiders, I gave some early looks as well. I was all over the Rams as a pick em on Monday. I locked that in and put 3 units on the game. I absolutely love this spot for the Rams and am looking forward to cashing the ticket. If you didnt get in early, I still think this is a fair play at -2.5. Try and keep it below the 3 to avoid a late FG win.


Rams pk -115

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