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Thanksgiving NFL Picks

What’s up people! After a short hiatus from the blog, I am back to give out some Thanksgiving winners! I’ve been lacking on the blogs a little bit but have been making weekly YouTube videos with the SmokeSports fellas breaking down games and giving our picks. Definitely check those out every week on the SmokeSports YouTube page. Had to give a shameless plug there. The past couple of weeks have been very meh for me gambling on the NFL. I’ve strung a few breakeven weeks together. While breaking even isn’t the worst thing in the world, I’m feeling a big week coming very soon!!


Now let’s get on to some Thanksgiving football! Thanksgiving truly is one of my favorite holidays of the year. I mean, what’s not to like? You get to hang out with your family, stuff your face, booze and watch some football. That’s my kind of Holiday! But, if I we’re to change one thing about Thanksgiving it would be the ridiculous tradition of the Lions and Cowboys playing every year. I kind of understand the Cowboys being “America’s Team” and getting a slot every year, but the Lions!?!? We need to put that tradition to an end ASAP. How much better would it be every year if we just got three great matchups on turkey day? I don’t think anyone would be complaining. But it is what it is, so were going to have to dive in to find some winners in this three-game slate.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – Bears –3.5 – O/U 42

The stinker game of the day! I mean if this thing was on Sunday, it would be the game RedZone flashes to maybe twice the entire day. Thankfully my family generally eats an egregiously early Thanksgiving feast. I never quite understood why we ate so early, but as I’ve grown up, I think I’ve realized my dad just doesn’t want to watch the Lions game. Can’t blame him if I’m being honest.


It looks like both Jared Goff and Justin Fields are going to be out for this game, so that means were going to be watching Tim Boyle and Andy Dalton sling the pigskin around…yuck! There is a chance that Goff plays and that’s definitely something you’ll want to monitor as a sport gambler, but to be honest, I am not sure a banged-up Goff changes my opinion a whole ton on this game. On top of that the lions lost a starting guard in last weeks game. That means they are currently down to only 3 of their starting offensive linemen. The Bears have their own slew of injuries on both sides of the ball as well. Allen Robinson is going to be a question mark in this game along with some notable other names for this Bears side.


So, what do you do when both QBs suck, there’s a ton of injuries and frankly its just two bad teams? You take the under in the total for the game! The Lions are 30th in the league scoring just 16 points per game and just 10.7 ppg in their last three. The Bears come into this game 29th in the league in scoring with just 16.3 ppg. Both teams are 7-3 to the under this year as well. This seems like an easy choice for me and something that just needs to be played.


Note: If I were to play a side in this, it would certainly be the Bears. Dalton is at least serviceable and to be quite honest, the Lions are just that bad. I’m not giving it out as a play, but I’ll likely have it in some degenerate parlays.


Play: Under 42 -110


Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys -7 – O/U 51.5

Let’s move on to the other stupid Thanksgiving tradition game. This one however, should be a little more exciting. I mean, its hard to get much worse than the previous game if I’m being honest.


What a wild ride it’s been for the Raiders this year. Their head coach got fired because of an investigation into a team he never worked for. The interim came in and the team bounced back to life a game. Then the following week the Henry Ruggs situation happened, and the Raiders have lost 3 straight games since. I’m sure its been an emotionally exhausting season for that team.


While the Cowboys come into this game 7-3 and one of the true players in the NFC playoff picture. However, they are coming off a disappointing performance against the Chiefs where they completely laid an egg. The #1 scoring offense was held to just 9 points against a Chiefs team that isn’t exactly known for their defense. The Cowboys might be thankful to get such a quick turnaround to get over last week’s games.


This feels like the perfect bounce back spot for the Cowboys, but their injuries have me feeling a bit worried. It looks like Amari Cooper is going to miss his second straight game and to make matters worse CeeDee lamb picked up a concussion and likely won’t be able to go either. That’s a big knock on the Cowboys passing game with their top two options out. On top of that, Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is questionable for this game. That would be a massive loss because he is one of their better linemen and the running game just isn’t quite the same without him. So, it seems like the Cowboys high powered offense is going to be down a few key components.


So, what to bet in this game!? Its looking like another under I’m going to have to play on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys offense being this banged up is truly worrying me and I think they will be less explosive than normal. The Raiders offense is poor in general and in extremely poor form. Their last three games they have scored 16, 14 and 13 to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. Those teams do not have particularly great defenses. The Cowboys defense has actually been really solid only allowing 21.4 ppg and 17.3 ppg in their last three. So, it looks like I’ll be playing my second under of the day. Like the Bears, I will probably bet the Cowboys in a parlay/teaser, but no official play on them for me.


Play: Under 51.5


Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints – Bills -4.5 – O/U 47

Finally, we get to the Thanksgiving night game! A game that I am actually excited to watch. Although I wish we were getting Jameis soooo bad. God knows what kind of wild shit he would be on for Thanksgiving. I still think this should be an entertaining game to watch and definitely the one I am most looking forward to on Thursday.


The Bills come into this game after getting absolutely shit pumped on Sunday by the Colts. The Colts truly had their way with the Bills and dominated the run game. The bills were without a few of there key run stuffers, but still it was a bit of a shocking result. I will say the Bills did seem a little unlucky. The fumbled kick return where the guy went down because of the turf monster was just brutal. The Bills now find themselves in second place in the division behind the Patriots. So, in essence I view this game as almost a must win for the Bills in a tight divisional race.


The Saints come into this game 5-5 on the season, but on a three-game losing streak. Those losses include the Eagles and Falcons, which many would consider not to be the best of teams. The Saints have prided themselves on shutting down the run, but the Eagles were able to run it all over them last week. And to continue or theme of injuries for these Thursday games, the Saints are extremely banged up. Last game they were without both of their starting offensive tackles and Kamara. During the game, they lost their starting TE as well.


So, I think I finally have a side I am going to bet this Thursday. I like the Bills to bounce back after a bad game last week. Like I said, I think this is a must win for the Bills and they will pull out all the stops to get this done. The Saints are very susceptible to the pass. Ranking 28th in sacks and 20th in passing yards allowed. The Bills won’t have to worry about the miserable conditions they played in last week and should find success through the air inside the dome. Not to mention, the Thanksgiving night favorites are 10-4.


Play: Bills -4.5


I hope everyone gets to enjoy their turkey, time with family and NFL football on this great holiday. Hopefully we can cash some winners on top of that. I am grateful to the people that read the blogs and hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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