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Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Breakdown + Best Bets

What’s going on people!? It’s time to break down another PGA tour event. Let’s start with some house keeping from last week at Torrey Pines. Luke List won the Farmers Insurance Open after a playoff against Will Zalatoris. I tossed a live bet on Willy Z Saturday morning looking for a sweat and boy did I ever get one. All Will had to do was make a single birdie on the back 9 and he would have won, but nope. Credit to Luke List for holding him off and securing the win. My full tournament H2H bets went 3-2 last week for a small profit. I am honestly disappointed because I was hoping for 4-1, but god damn Billy Horschel just wouldn’t go away. He ended up winning his matchup over Ryan Palmer which was frustrating but 3-2 aint bad. Worth also noting that Viktor Hovland won the Dubai Desert Classic last week as well. The Middle East has been putting on tournaments drawing major names. Hovland’s win last week moved him to #3 in the world golf rankings. Very impressive stuff from Viktor! Now let’s move on to Pebble Beach this week!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Location: Monterey, California

Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links (Spyglass Hill GC & Monterey Peninsula CC)

Par: 72

Length: 7051 yards (Short)

Greens: Poa Annua

Average Green Size: 3500 sq feet (Small)

Field Size: 156 professional paired with 156 amateurs

Format: Pro-Am, 54-hole cut, Top 60 pros plus ties make cut, top 25 teams plus ties make cut

Purse: $8.7 Million – Winner $1.5 Million


Previous Winners (Odds included)

2021: Daniel Berger (-18) – 18/1

2020: Nick Taylor (-19) – 160/1

2019: Phil Mickelson (-19) – 25/1

2018: Ted Potter Jr (-17) – 500/1

2017: Jordan Spieth (-19) – 9/1

Let’s get right into it starting with the format. This tournament is similar to some of the others we have had lately in the regard that golf is being played on multiple golf courses. So, this is a 54-hole cut, and each golfer will be playing the three different courses once. The three courses are Pebble Beach, Spyglass and Monterey. Ill get more into the golf course details later. After 54 holes, the top 60 plus ties will make the cut and play on Sunday. Additionally, the top 25 Pro-Am teams will make the cut and play on Sunday. Sunday will of course be played at Pebble beach.


I am not the biggest fan of these odd formats. Call me boring, but I like all the golf to be played on one single golf course. It just makes everything a little easier, but you can’t always get what you want. The Pro-Am format will be interesting because you usually get some big-name guys out to this tournament. So, we should at least have some fun seeing some celebrities out there playing golf.


It worth pointing out that the field of this event isn’t great. Only 10 of the top 50 players in the world are playing Pebble this week. A lot of the top guys are playing in the Middle East as I mentioned earlier. Their field this week actually sees 21 of the top 50 guys. The PGA tour can’t be happy so many guys are playing over there instead of one of their events. I would handicap and bet on that tournament, but its just not really on TV and there isn’t as much information floating around out there. So instead, I’ll stick to Pebble Beach and find some winners!

Now for the actual golf course. Pebble Beach is a world class golf course that every golfer dreams to play at some point in their life. Everyone wants to get a swing at #7 the short par 3 measuring only about 100 yards. Hell, I was playing Pebble Beach on a golf simulator last weekend! So, this course is famous and beautiful. It’s a short track at only about 7,000 yards, but it certainly isn’t easy. The greens here are tiny, so we need players who are lethal on approach, but also have the ability to scramble around the greens. The greens will be similar to last week at Torrey. Poa Annua grass, which means a bumpy putting surfaces and will lead to guys second guessing themselves on 5 footers. Also, like Torrey, this is a coastal golf course, so wind always plays a factor. As of now, it doesn’t look like there will be a ton of wind, but that can always change.


As I mentioned earlier, there will be play on two other golf course. Those courses are Spyglass Hill GC and Monterey Peninsula CC. Both courses are similar length to Pebble being around 7000 yards. They both also have Poa Annua greens. So, all three courses are similar in style. Spyglass is honestly the hardest of the three, but they will only have that one of the days.


So, what exactly are we looking for when betting on this tournament? Driving accuracy is not going to be a must this week as it was last week. The fairways are pretty wide, and guys shouldn’t be getting in trouble with the driver. This is a true second-shot golf course meaning that approach shots are everything. I am looking for guys who are ball strikers and will hit it close often. A good short game is required because of how small the greens are. Putting will be iffy with this difficult surface. So, we don’t need putting aces, more so just guys that can get hot with the putter. Lastly, I am looking for guys that have shown some form. We have had some events now in 2022, so its important to weigh in how the guys have been playing. This is my formula for the week! Let’s see if it can help pick a winner.


Outrights:


Justin Rose +2800

Justin Rose was one of my first clicks this weekend. He has been in great form finishing T6 last week at the Farmers. This is a great course for Rose because it is short and approach shots are key. Rose isn’t a guy that’s going to pound the ball, but rather be precise with approach shots. I think he will hit greens and give himself a shot to win. I mean Rose is a former #1 player in the world, the ability is there, just need him to put it all together.

Maverick McNealy +2800

Mav is back on my card this week! The guy literally lives right out here and has played Pebble so many times. McNealy is great out on the West Coast and thrives on short courses with small greens. He had a good showing last week and I thought there might be a chance going into Sunday. He didn’t have the greatest day on Sunday, but I am not missing out on Mav winning.

Seamus Power +3000

Power is another guy that just keeps making my card and for good reason. His last 4 finishes include T14, T3, T15, T4. So, this guy is playing some pretty impressive golf. He is good on approach and great around the greens which should benefit him greatly this week. Power is due to break through and win here eventually.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000

Bezuidenhout, or Bez which I call him because his name is too damn long, was on my card as a fade last week. I faded him because I thought he would have issues off the tee with tight fairways. This tournament there should be far less trouble off the tee. His approach and around the green skills should shine this week. As long as he can get off the tee, he has a chance, and I don’t think this golf course is too difficult to drive.

Lanto Griffin + 5500

Lanto is another guy coming in with pretty solid form. He finished T30 last week but the week prior at the AMEX he finished T3. Another guy that is a good ball striker and should have success on approach shots. He didn’t play the event last year but finished T9 in 2020, so there is some course history for him. He is a solid putter so lets look for him to get hot with the flat stick.


Top 20

I do have some top 20s for this week. With the field being not so great, there were a few guys that I liked as bombs. But instead of playing them outright, I am just going to play top 20s on them.

Lucas Glover +300

Glover is playing some really solid golf. He finished 3rd at the Sony a few weeks ago. He has finished top 10 in this event in the past.

Andrew Putnam +300

Putnam too has had solid form. He finished T14 last week and really stuck the ball well. He doesn’t hit the ball of the tee very well but makes up for it with a good game around the greens and putting.

Sahith Theegala +400

Theegala is a guy that I have had my eyes on lately. He finished T25 last week and T33 the week before. He turned pro in 2020 and has been having a fair bit of success. I like his work around the greens and think he is capable of a top 20 this week.


Full Tournament H2H

I am going to wrap things up with my full tourney H2Hs. I have a decent bit today. For the sake of time, I am going to offer these picks without explanation.


Zalatoris > Berger +115

Mito Pereira > Hughes -104

Rai > Mitchell -110

Reavie > Champ -106

Hoge > McCarthy -117

Bez > Palmer -104


That’ll do it for my card this week! If any questions always feel free to reach out via twitter! Also tune into the newest episode of Smokin’ Greens coming out later this evening! Thanks as always for reading.

Twitter: @Bminus3 @Smokin_Greens

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