Farmers Insurance Open - Torrey Pines - LOCKS!

What’s up people! I’m back with another golf tournament preview and I couldn’t be more excited! This is the first “real” tourney of the year in my opinion. The Tour heads to Southern California to take on the absolutely beautiful Torrey Pines Golf Course. Before we get into the action this week lets do an extremely quick recap of last week. I know no one was watching that tournament because it went head-to-head with the best weekend in NFL history. I didn’t care for that tournament at all. The course rotation made it so hard to follow. I thought I’d have a chance going into Sunday with Zalatoris or especially Power, but that ended real quick when Power started Sunday with double bogey on 1 and bogey on 2. Hudson Swafford won the tourney shooting an impressive -8 on Sunday. Betting wise, I did alright last week. Couldn’t bring home an outright winner but won my only H2H matchup of the week and broke even on top 20s. Enough about that, lets get into Torrey MFing Pines!

Farmers Insurance Open

Location: San Diego, California

Course: Torrey Pines

Par: 72

Length: 7765 yards (Long)

Greens: Poa Annua – 11.5 Stimpmeter

Average Green Size: 5,000 sq feet (Pretty Small)

Field Size: 156 players

Purse: $8.4 Million – Winner $1.5 Million

Previous Winners

2021: Patrick Reed (25/1)

2020: Marc Leishman (55/1)

2019: Justin Rose (14/1)

2018: Jason Day (22/1)

2017: John Rahm (55/1) – My god do I wish I could be Rahm 55/1 to win a golf tournament

2016: Brandt Snedeker (18/1)

2015: Jason Day (14/1)

2014: Scott Stallings (250/1)

2013: Tiger Woods (7.5/1) – Yes I went back to 2013 just so I could include Tiger

Alright let’s get into to it. First thing we have to point out; this golf tournament goes Wednesday – Saturday instead of the normal setup. Genius move on their part because they don’t have to compete with the NFL on Sunday. Like I mentioned earlier, to me, this is the first real tournament of the year. We have some big names, and we have an unbelievable golf course for this week. I must point out, the information listed above is for the South Course at Torrey Pines. The field will be playing each the South and the North courses on Wednesday and Thursday. Then for Friday and Saturday after the cut, all play is held at the famous South Course. I’ll go over the North Course very briefly since a majority of the action will be on the other course. The North Course is significantly easier. There are some par 5s you can get home in two along with some drivable par 4s. So essentially, you have to go low at the North when you have the opportunity. I am thinking -5 or better on the North is going to be needed because the South is so much more difficult.

Now let’s get into the South Course. This magnificent, but difficult course was designed by Rees Jones on the cliffs of SoCal bordering the Pacific Ocean. It was host to the 2021 U.S. Open. It is a very long golf course with tight fairways and very tricky greens. Torrey Pines South features seven par-4s that are over 450 yards long. All four of the par-5s are over 560 yard. The greens are regarded as some of the most difficult to putt on in the tour. They feature Poa Annua grass that is mostly found on the West Coast or North East. So, we like to look for guys that played a lot of golf out that way. The rough features Kikuyugrass which is extremely thick and not common on many other golf courses. Now I don’t expect it to play as difficult as they set it up for the U.S. Open, but we won’t be seeing the same birdie fests we have been seeing the last couple of weeks. I love this style of golf course because it is difficult. I like to see these guys work and scramble to get out of some tricky situations. It is much more enjoyable that a pitch and putt birdie fest in my opinion. Also, Tiger has won 8 times here, so it has a little special place in my heart.

There are a lot of different styles that can win here, which makes it so interesting to me. Although this is a long golf course, I don’t think you necessarily need to be a long hitter to win. I would much rather have guys keeping it on the fairway and out of the long rough. It is a long course, so it’s inevitable we see guys coming up short of greens. That’s why I like guys with good short game that can scramble well and avoid making bogey. Then obviously we have the putting. I am looking for guys with experience on these greens that can have come confidence with the flat stick.


Daniel Berger +2200

I love Berger this week. The guy can really strike the golf ball and is excellent on approach. He has a very solid short game, so he should be able to scramble and avoid bogey. I am taking a little risk with Berger as he hasn’t played this event the past two years, but I think his ability makes him a play this week.

Marc Leishman +3400

How could you not like Leishman this week? The guy has already won here in the past and is very familiar with the greens. On top of the win, he has two second places here. He has the 4th best scoring average at Torrey out of the field. Leish feels like a smart play to me.

Brooks Koepka +3600

When I see Brooks being priced at this number it just has to be played. Brooks is a world class golfer that is capable of winning every time he tees it up. I know the scrutiny that he only cares about the Majors, but I think now that he’s healthier this year he is going to be an issue for the rest of the field. It must be noted he finished 4th here last year at the U.S. Open. Come on Brooksie!!

Patrick Reed +5000

Another straight auto play in my mind. I mean, this guy won the tournament here last year by 5 god damn strokes. His short game is out of this world and if he gets it going with the putter look out. Reed gets disrespected by the market because everyone hates him. Ill happily take a price that is literally double what it was when he won last year.

Max Homa +7000

Max is one of my favorite golfers, so I am happy to add him to my card. Max is a west coast kid, so he definitely has some experience with these green types. He was a winner at Riviera last year, which is somewhat similar. He has finished in the top 20 here each of the last two years as well.

Maverick McNealy +7000

McNealy is another guy from Cali so I think he will be comfortable on this course. I’ve been keeping an eye on Mav because I think he could breakthrough somewhat soon. This is his third full season on the PGA tour and I just feel like that first win is coming. If its going to happen, it’ll be somewhere out on the west coast and I don’t want to miss out.

Francesco Molinari +8000

The Italian Stallion baby! Molinari looked great last week finishing 6th. He finished 10th here in 2021. He has had success on longer golf courses in the past. I think he’s finally ready to get over his melt down at the 2019 Masters and start playing some really good golf again. Molinari has made me a ton of money in the past, so I am heading back to the well.

Full Tournament Head to Heads

Sungjae Im > Tony Finau -120

Im was awfully close to making my outright card, but I think I’ve bet him three week in a row. So, he needs a break from me. Inevitably that means he will win this week. But let me grab him in this H2H and fade Finau. A lot of people have been picking Finau this week I like the consistency of Sungjae much more.

Justin Rose > Bezuidenhout -115

I love this play. Rose has won here in the past, so you know what he’s capable of. Bez does not drive the ball accurately or long at all which leads me to believe he will struggle this week. Gimme Rosie!

Ryan Palmer > Billy Horschel -125

Palmer has found success at Torrey Pines with two second place finishes in his last four starts. He also finished top 21 in his other two in that period. So, Palmer is consistently getting results here. Can’t say the same for Bill Ho. He missed the cut here last year and finished outside the top 50 the year previous.

Hoge > Day -115

Hoge cashed me out last week for my top 20 +400 bet, so I have some allegiance to this guy. He finished 5th here in 2020. I like what I have seen from Hoge this year and he comes in on good form. While Jason Day has been hitting it like shit. If he hadn’t won here previously this line would be -140. I am taking the guy in much better form here.

Zalatoris > Gooch -120

Willy Z is another guy I wanted an outright on, but his price is just too low for me. He played incredible last week and is a pure striker of the golf ball. Gooch missed the cut last week and really pissed me off because I was backing him. He hasn’t had much success here and I think he will struggle both off the tee and on the greens.

That wraps it up for my Farmers Insurance Open preview. I am rolling into battle with 7 outrights and 5 H2H matchups. As always thanks for giving this a read. Our podcast Smokin’ Greens will be out tonight, I encourage you to listen to that. As well as following along on our twitters for any daily matchups and live bets. Let’s cash in this week!

Twitter: @Bminus3 @Smokin_Greens

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