We are now officially 2 weeks into the MLB regular season, and a lot has happened. There have been two major Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the MLB, the Marlins are 6-1 and lead the NL East, and…wait the Marlins are 6-1. Yeah, it’s been a hectic MLB season thus far, which makes sense considering everything else that is going on. The best thing about being two weeks into the MLB season is that we get to see what teams really look like, which makes picking winning bets that much easier (I hope).
For instance, you might think the Bronx Bombers crush homeruns at a crazy rate and cash the over more often than not. Well, they don’t. In fact, the over has hit only 5 out of their 12 games (.416). The Yankees are actually below the MLB average of 44.4% of all games going over their totals.
With all that being said, there is still baseball being played today, which means there are games that can be bet on.
Reds @ Brewers
CIN (-120) @ MIL (EV)
At first glance Reds @ Brewers isn’t the flashiest game, and that’s why I love it. You have two teams who have been swinging the bats pretty bad to start the season (Except Castellanos), and one pitcher who has found a groove early this season. Bauer has an ERA of 0.68 thru 2 starts, and looks dominant. He should thrive versus a team that has consistently struck out throughout the first two weeks of the season. Also, the Brewers are having Eric Lauer start the game. He has looked good out of the pen throwing 2.2 scoreless innings, but I expect that scoreless streak to end today with a potent Reds lineup that is due to break out.
The Pick:Reds (-120)
Reds 6– Brewers 3
Yankees @ Rays
NYY (-110) @ TB (-110)
Truthfully, I think this game is -110 for both sides based and name value alone. The Yankees have Tanaka on the mound tonight who has been notably mediocre at best the last 2 years. On the other hand, the Rays send out former Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Based on name alone you might be thinking that the Rays have a solid chance at silencing the league’s best offense (in terms of runs per game). However, if you look at Snell so far this year, he has two starts and has a combined 5 innings thrown. If those were 5 shutdown innings, I might be inclined to pick the Rays, but they were not. He has a 5.40 ERA so far this year, and the lack of innings must mean that he is dealing with an ailing injury. Take into consideration that you are getting on of the best teams in baseball at -110, and you got yourself an incredible value with the Yankees.
The Pick: NYY (-110)
Yankees 6 – Rays 4
Rockies @ Mariners
COL (+110) @ SEA (-130)
Last, but certainly not least we have the Rockies and the Mariners. This may be my favorite I’ve seen in a while. Let’s start with the ML bet. I’m getting the Rockies, who are one of the best teams in the league, with a pitcher who has a 2.45 ERA and a 2-0 record. Their opponent, the Mariners who are sending Kikuchi to the mound who one day throws 6 shutout innings, but on another day gives up 5 innings thru 3.2 innings. The most amazing thing about that last stat is that he still has a 0-0 record on the year. So, what does this tell me? To take the better team as a road underdog.
Now, onto the total. Here are the teams Over-Under-Push records on the year
It seems that these teams are polar opposites when it comes to the Over/Under, but that is only partially true. Yes, the Rockies have barely cashed in their overs, BUT out of their 12 games, 7 of them have had a total of over 10. This game has the total set at 8.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockies hit the over without any help from the Mariners. However, I do think the Mariners still put up some runs to go along with the Rockies.
The Pick(s): COL (+110) & Over 8.5
Rockies 7 – Mariners 5