What’s going on people! Let’s start this thing off with a shout out to my guy Max Homa! He took home the win at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. I love Max and I’m happy anytime he’s able to get a win. I didn’t get to tune into a ton of it, but I did watch Sunday down the stretch. It was a nice little battle between him and Keegan Bradley. Ultimately Max was able to secure his 4th PGA tour victory. On top of that, it’s Max’s 3rd win in his last 30 starts. It seems like he’s starting to hit that groove and I will definitely keep my eye on Homa moving forward. While I didn’t have any money on Max last week, I did have a great week betting golf. I got to break out the brooms and sweep on my full tournament H2H match ups. The best part was all three were decided on Friday evening, so I didn’t even have to sweat them. Also, ill continue to be obsessed with betting Matt Fitzpatrick top 20. At this point I feel like it’s the safest bet in golf. But now it’s time to turn our attention over to the AT&T Byron Nelson taking place this week.
- Course name: TPC Craig Ranch
- Location: Dallas Texas
- Par 72 – 4 par 3s, 10 par 4s, 4 par 5s.
- All 4 of the par 5s are reachable in 2. 12% eagle rate on aggregate
- Length: 7,468 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass – avg. green size 6,788 sq. ft.
- Holes with water hazards: 13
- Fairways are enormous and rough really isn’t penal
- One of the easiest courses on tour
- Birdie-fest or as Rahm would say putting contest
The Byron Nelson tournament has been around since 1944 and has been a staple on the PGA tour. However, the location has not remained the same. Last year was the first year of this tournament being played at TPC Craig Ranch. We saw K.H. Lee win this thing in 2021 at -25. The cut line last year was at -6. So, as you can see, this event is a pure birdie-fest. There was that famous clip from last year where Rahm called it a putting contest. While the clip was funny, he wasn’t necessarily wrong. Essentially, the fairways are massive here and there isn’t a ton of trouble. The greens are large and receptive. So, almost every hole we are going to see the players with opportunities to make birdie and it will really come down to making some putts. Obviously, the putting can be offset if you just have a better approach game and hit it closer to the hole. All and all, this course is going to get dominated by these guys and we are looking to back birdie makers.
Weather is always something you should look into when betting on golf. It can completely change the conditions and what kind of golfers will preform well. Luckily this week, we shouldn’t have to worry about the weather at all. It looks like 80s and sunshine all week. Also, the course got a good amount of rain leading up, so the course conditions should be absolutely perfect.
While the Byron Nelson has been around for a while, it doesn’t necessarily draw the best crowd of golfers to this event. However, this year is a little bit different. With the PGA Championship being next week in Tulsa, Oklahoma, there are a lot of guys using this week’s event as a little tune up. The hometown kid and #1 player in the world, Scottie Scheffler will be playing. Along with 8 other top 20 players in the world including, JT, DJ, Spieth, Sam Burns, Xander, Deki, Niemann and Brooks. So all and all pretty solid field.
Keys to Victory:
- Ability to make birdie or better
- Strokes gained putting (Bentgrass)
- Strokes gained on approach (Makes for easier putts)
- Driving distance
- Par 5 scoring
Sam Burns +2200
I love Sammy Burns this week. If you want to talk about a guy who can go low, Burns would be at the top of that list. He finished 2nd in this event last year. He finished 2nd in the Zurich his last time out this year. He has a win at the Valspar back in March. Sam Burns is just playing some great golf and is my first selection on my outright card this week.
Joaquin Niemann +3500
Joaco is another pure birdie maker. His strengths are distance off the tee and approach shots, which is ideal for this place. His putting is above average, but if he can heat that thing up watch out. Niemann boat raced everyone earlier this year at the Genesis, so we know what he is capable of.
Talor Gooch +4500
Obviously, I picked another guy who has the ability to go low in Gooch. He seems to thrive in these low scoring type of tournaments. His win earlier this year at the RSM Classic is a perfect example where he shot -22 in his route to victory. Gooch also has some history at this course. He has played it 4 times in Q-School/Korn Ferry tour and doesn’t have a finish worse that 21st.
Talor Gooch +190
My reasoning on why I love Gooch is right above. I am doubling down with a top 20 because I think it’s a safer route. I definitely see Gooch in somewhat of contention on Sunday, so let’s try and lock in profit on a top 20.
Adam Hadwin +210
When you think low scoring events, Hadwin should always be a guy that comes to mind. He finished 3rd in an event here back in 2012. He has 3 top 20s in his last 5 events. I like Hadwin at more than 2 to 1 to finish inside the top 20.
Kurt Kitayama +500
Let’s finish top 20’s with a little bit of a longer shot here. Kitayama has been playing some pretty good golf this year. He finished 2nd at the Mexico open two weeks ago. He finished 3rd at the Honda Classic. He’s a guy who hits it long off the tee and then does well on approach. 5 to 1 on a top 20 is worth a bet in my opinion.
Full Tournament Head-to-Head:
Sam Burns > DJ -120
As you can see, I am all in on Burns this week. I truly think this place sets up perfectly for him. As I’ve stated multiple times the putter is key this week. DJ has lost strokes putting in 5 of the last 6 events he has played in. Also, as a multi time winner, DJ isn’t focused on this week, he is focused on the PGA Championship next week. Gimme Sammy Burns to take down DJ.
Talor Gooch > Jason Kokrak -120
I am all over Talor Gooch this week. I really think he can win this whole damn tournament. Kokrak is a guy who has let me down time and time again this year. I have had him on the card multiple times and all I can remember is disappointment. He also hasn’t played in a month. So, I am taking Gooch over him.
That is the card for this week people! I appreciate you taking the time to read. Let’s sweep those matchups again this week and get an outright!! Follow along on twitter for more content.
Twitter: @Bminus3 @Smokin_Greens