What’s up Degenerates, I am back again to recap last week, preview the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, and give out some plays that you can take to the bank. Last weekend wasn’t the most eventful finish, Collin Morikawa ran away with it towards the end, but congrats to him for a stress free back 9 on Sunday. I think it would have been a lot closer if Brooks had played well through the weekend, but an apparent neck strain prevented his A game, and finished in 2nd (not a bad paycheck to walk away with all things considered.) Watch out for Brooks over the next few weeks and especially at Augusta once his neck is feeling fine again.
Onto this week, last year at Bay Hill, the players had extreme wind and weather conditions to deal with and Tyrell Hatton won with only a -4 on the week! That will obviously not be the score to beat this week, as the winning score is usually in the -10 to -14 range. Over the past few years, no course has had more balls in the water than at Bay Hill, along with the water surrounding the course, the course itself is littered with bunkers, so driving and approach accuracy will be a huge factor this week. It is the type of course to go get par every hole and waiting for the right opportunities to chase the pin and get birdie that will decide the winner. Most courses have a signature hole, and this week it will be the 6th hole Par 5. Players have a chance to drive the green and on a Par 5, that is almost unheard of, but if you cut through the fairway and drive over the entire lake, you are almost certain to get an eagle, but if you aren’t able to make it over… you could end up like John Daly and score an 18 on a single hole! Most players probably attempt the shot in a practice round but would never dare try it when it matters… but most golfers aren’t Bryson. Will Bryson try to legendary shot? Or just lay up like the rest of us… one can only hope he goes for it all 4 rounds!
Not of a lot of the Top 20 golfers are here this week, we got spoiled with great fields in almost every tournament since the restart, so the field doesn’t have the same star power some others have had but doesn’t mean we won’t have an action-packed week.
Outright Winners: Bryson Dechambeau +1000 4th place finish last year and 2nd the year before that. Sungjae Im +2200 similar logic to Bryson, he has finished 3rd the past two years at this course and always plays Florida courses well.
Billy Horschel +3500 Florida boy who is coming off a T2 with great odds.
Sam Burns +3500 Should have won 2 weeks ago and is playing the best golf of his life… he’ll get that first win eventually… I just really don’t want to miss when it happens. The odds are not great for someone who hasn’t won yet, but almost everybody in the golf world is on him this week and the FOMO is kicking in.
Will Zalatoris +4000 The couple guys have been long shot plays, but the kid shows no fear going up against the biggest competition and playing on courses he’s never played before. With less star power in the tournament I like for Will to at least put himself in a spot to compete through the weekend. He has made 10/11 cuts this season and finished T22 in a much better field last week and would have been even higher without a +1 Sunday round.
Top 20 Bets/ Super Long shots if you want to take them to win: Max Homa +200 kind of a fan pick, as he is electric on Twitter